Expectations for US Fed Interest Rate Cuts Boost SS Futures to Halt Declines and Rise [SMM Stainless Steel Futures Weekly Review]

SMM data showed the most-traded SS contract pulled back this week. As of 10:30 on August 29, the SS2510 contract was quoted at 12,790 yuan/mt, up 45 yuan/mt WoW.

From a macro perspective, on August 26, the US Commerce Department issued its final ruling that corrosion-resistant stainless steel imports from 10 countries and regions (including Taiwan, China and Vietnam) were being dumped, involving $2.9 billion. If the ITC subsequently confirms injury, formal anti-dumping duties will be imposed (with rates as high as 67.81% for some companies). This move intensified global trade frictions, dampening stainless steel export demand expectations and particularly impacting industry chain stability in affected regions. Fed Chairman Powell's dovish remarks initially boosted commodities, but the market remained cautious about a September interest rate cut, amplifying price volatility amid macro uncertainties. The central bank's net injection of medium and long-term liquidity (via reverse repo operations and MLF) this week supported infrastructure investment expectations but provided limited short-term demand boost for stainless steel.

Fundamentally, despite approaching the traditional September-October peak season, the stainless steel market has shown gradual improvement with recovering downstream demand, as social inventory declined for eight consecutive weeks. However, current market dynamics remain significantly influenced by macro factors and futures, resulting in volatile trading activity and prices. With the peak season nearing, stainless steel inventories continued to decrease, while prices of raw materials nickel, chromium, and molybdenum all rose. Additionally, expectations for a September US Fed interest rate cut have fostered relative optimism. Yet, planned stainless steel production in September is expected to increase further, and macro policy uncertainties persist, requiring the market to balance the tug-of-war between sellers and buyers with policy variables. The future trajectory will depend on the pace of demand recovery and the actual materialization of macro tailwinds.